Daily FX Trends - Mecklai Financial

Daily FX Trends - Commentaries

	USD/INR	EURO/USD	GBP/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF
Macro Support-Resistance Levels	94.25-97.50	1.1250-1.2100	1.2800-1.3800	150.00-162.50	0.7400-0.8300
Sentiment against USD	Neutral	Negative	Negative	Neutral	Neutral
Forecast for the day	94.40-94.90	1.1540-1.1620	1.3365-1.3435	159.70-160.60	0.7935-0.7975

Spot rupee ended stronger today at 94.56/57 to a dollar level after opening at 94.61/62 level. Equity market benchmarks ended higher for the third consecutive session. BSE Sensex gained 0.7 while the NSE Nifty gained 0.6 today.
DXY is now trading a 99.62 level as traders await the FOMC meeting outcome tomorrow. The Fed is not expected to hike rates in this meeting, but the Fed’s post meeting conference holds importance.
Meanwhile, today, the Bank of Japan raised its policy interest rate by 25 basis points to 1.0, the highest level in 31 years and the first-time rates have reached 1 since 1995. The move, approved by a 7–1 vote, continues the central bank’s gradual shift away from decades of ultra-loose monetary policy. Board member Toichiro Asada opposed the hike, citing risks to growth and employment from Middle East tensions. The BoJ also said it will keep reducing JGB purchases by about JPY 200 billion per quarter until March 2027, but will slow the pace of reductions from April 2027 onward to help limit volatility in the bond market as long-term yields rise.
Elsewhere, the German ZEW economic sentiment index surged in June compared to May, reaching 10.5 compared to a negative 10.2 previously. For the Euro area ZEW Economic sentiment index rose to 9.5 from -9.1 in May. Both the indices beat market forecasts for -5.8 and -7.2 respectively. EURUSD is trading higher at 1.1607 level.
Key data releases ahead: US: Housing Starts; Building permits; Import prices m/m;

Rupee opened higher at 94.62 levels and expected to trade cautiously, ahead of the two-day FOMC meeting beginning tonight. Equity market benchmarks are trading about 0.3 higher in early trading.

India’s latest monthly merchandise trade deficit stands at $28.21 billion. This is down marginally from $28.38 billion, While merchandise exports reached a historic monthly record high of $45.20 billion, an influx of elevated imports totaling $73.41 billion kept the goods trade gap stubbornly high. Services trade recorded a surplus of $17.70 bn. Overall trade combined recorded a deficit of USD 10.51 bn.

DXY is holding steady at 99.70 level post US-Iran MOU announcement. Markets are also looking forward to the first FOMC meeting to be held by Fed Chair Kevin Marsh. While inflation continues to be firm, the recent sharp decline in energy prices could give some relief to the FOMC members and adopt wait and watch approach.

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